Long term shifts in geopolitical alliances and international crisis hotspots, as well as an increasing consensus on climate change science, have altered the political landscape between the 2009 Summit in Copenhagen and the 2015 COP21 in Paris.
China is today contributing a quarter of global emissions, which effectively makes it the most important country in the fight against climate change. India has the highest growth prospects both economically and in terms of population. The EU, historically one of the most proactive blocs on climate policy and a strong advocate of the multilateral climate process, has developed strong bilateral relationships with most of the negotiating parties. But what is the status of relations between these actors and what will determine their agreement in Paris?
In this blog post, I take stock of the first week of the Paris negotiations from the perspective of the European Union, with a special emphasis on the positions of China and India. The overall mood remains positive, but it is clear that the EU has lost its leadership role in ushering in a meaningful Paris agreement.
Achievements: there is a negotiating text
There is a negotiating text, but all critical issues will be decided by countries’ ministers, who arrive in week two. That in itself is a major achievement, as it reflects the negotiations of all parties over the last few years and aims to realise the goals of the 2009 Copenhagen Summit.
In order to include all these contributions, the present text of the Draft Paris Outcome  looks like a set of bracketed proposals, but it serves as a concrete basis on which governments will make their decisions. The EU is willing to accommodate US constraints to getting binding mitigation targets through the Republican-dominated US Congress.
In Saturday’s press conference, the EU Commissioner for Climate and Energy Cañete expressed that in return the US might have to accept “certain [read: less explicit] language”. The overarching goal is to avoid an outcome similar to the Kyoto Protocol, which was never ratified by the United States after it failed to get enough Congressional votes.
Tensions: EU supports setting the target to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but China seems immobile
Perhaps in an effort to “raise its profile as a climate change pioneer”, Germany pushed for the EU to support smaller island nations – some of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change – to include the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius  into the final negotiation text. China remained sceptical to the idea.
In line with the Chinese credo of promising little and over-delivering, the country feels uncomfortable with setting a lower target, which seems almost certainly out of reach. The dilemma is that China is organised within the negotiating group of “G77 and China”, which comprises many of the countries demanding a shift to 1.5 degrees. India on the other hand would find it hard to argue for 1.5 degrees considering its continued plans  for intensive coal production.
Trend 1: debate on climate finance is shifting
Finance is the core issue at the Paris climate negotiations. Most of the larger discussions contain demands by the developing countries for developed countries to increase the finance given and to avoid shirking responsibility. Developed countries retort by enumerating their multiple projects and aspirations: the EU is, after all, the biggest provider of climate finance and development aid globally.
This has been the style of past meetings, but China, in particular, is changing the game. In the sessions of the so-called ADP contact group, which was working on the actual negotiation text, China had not significantly diverged from its traditional rhetoric, focusing on differentiation of commitments based on countries’ economic status.
However, it is quite usual for Chinese climate policy to be highly ambitious away the multilateral negotiation table, so it was not surprising when the Chinese government announced significant funds for South-South cooperation. Two funds to tackle climate change total USD 5.1 billion . And even more drastically President Xi Jinping pledged to spend a staggering USD 60 billion  on development projects in Africa. China might be negotiating as a developing country, but through these actions it is also changing sides towards a climate finance provider.
Trend 2: China no longer the “bad boy”, India stepping in
A sea change in Chinese attitudes and policies towards climate change took place around 2006 when China overtook the United States in absolute emissions. Since then we have witnessed a convergence of framing of overall climate change policy , with China moving from the rhetoric of “justice between industrialised and developing countries”, to claiming “responsibility” for reducing emissions, and finally, declaring “war on pollution”.
While there were promising signs from India through its massive renewable energy programme, the country also plans to triple its coal production by 2040  according to the latest IEA report presented by its Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, who is attending the climate talks. With such prospects in mind, it is easier to understand the country’s negotiation position during the first week. India has emphasized the very basics of the negotiations: that developed countries should pay for combating climate change due to their historical responsibility as early industrialisers.
More concretely, India opposes five-year review cycles, which would create a process to increase the ambition of the current pledges in five years. Such a review cycle is considered essential by the most vulnerable countries and the EU, since the present commitments do not suffice to limit global temperature increases to 2 degree Celsius. Besides demanding better compensation mechanisms for those communities who will have to suffer and lose their livelihoods due to climate change, it is also nationalist sentiment that makes India drive a hard bargain . The agreement at the end of next week might well reflect several concessions to the Indian position.
Trend 3: EU reduced to self-proclaimed “bridge builder”
The EU’s negotiating power has changed considerably since the landmark Copenhagen Summit in 2009.
A convergence in terms of interests and policy preferences with China and the US thus can be considered a validation of the EU’s role as an international actor. At the same time, however, the 2014 and 2015 US-China climate agreements changed the climate game completely and as a consequence the EU is losing its leadership position to the US  (on the negotiation side) and China (on the technology implementation side). While this might be an issue of concern for the European Union, which has been instrumental in driving the process for years, it is also an opportunity, since it demonstrates the inclusiveness of the process by bringing all countries to the table.
Hope: Governments more progressive than their negotiators, French facilitation taking over this Saturday
In the light of a reduced scope for leadership, what are the EU’s options? In the run-up to Paris, the EU has supported China to take on a leadership role. The French hosts have encouraged and highlighted domestic enforcement efforts in China and India. The EU still excels in technological innovation and can support China by offering capacity building, and on a more strategic level, provide advice on how to manifest the link between climate change and public health (air pollution) and low-carbon growth to strengthen the present path in the face of slowing economic growth.
Finally, the EU might have to accept a text which shies away from mitigation targets, but allows countries to get it ratified domestically (in particular the US) and to sell it to their constituencies (in particular India and Brazil). In this regard, the impressive actions of some civil society groups have managed to establish a global public constituency which is capable of putting pressure on their governments to act. Therefore, the EU’s priorities for week two are to progress on questions of emissions reductions, adaptation and climate financing, as well as keep room for “ratcheting up ambition”. It will also be the moment for the French facilitators, who took over from the previous chairs on Saturday, to demonstrate the best of French diplomacy.
The research for this article was supported by the Dahrendorf Forum, a joint initiative by the Hertie School of Governance, LSE and Stiftung Mercator. The author is an observer at the Paris COP21 reporting from open sessions and discussions in the corridors. Hope remains in the power of the “informal informals” which take place all over the conference centre (sometimes 150 at the same time) to hammer out a meaningful deal.
A more extensive analysis of the EU’s negotiation position was published as a Strategic Update by LSE IDEAS by Olivia Gippner,  2015: Paving the road to Paris? What the EU can do to facilitate a political climate change deal. 
This blog was also posted by LSE Europe blog, which can be seen here.