T20 Task Force contributors Monika Sus (Hertie School) and Julia Himmrich (LSE) argue that scenario methodology is one of the most resourceful foresight approaches. It facilitates contrarian thinking and undermines the groupthink that often occurs during policymaking processes in homogeneous environments. Political elites have shown that they are not immune to the effects – at times, even fatal consequences – of such streamlining. Since scenario processes are inherently heterogeneous, they increase overall transparency and provide opportunities to include previously excluded social groups and perspectives in the decision-making process. In sum, foresight studies widen the perspective to cover a range of unexpected yet plausible outcomes and thus they represent a valuable tool for policymakers in view of the growing global uncertainties.
The G20 Insights Platform publishes Policy Briefs intended for G20 policymakers during Germany’s G20 presidency in 2016/2017. These policy recommendations are developed by members of Think20 (T20) Germany, a research and policy advice network for the G20, consisting of research institutes and think tanks from the G20 countries. Helmut K. Anheier and Mark Hallerberg are co-chairs of their respective T20 Task Forces, publishing Policy Briefs along with colleagues from other universities and think-tanks from different G20 countries.
G20 Insights Policy Brief (2017)
The Impact of Foresight on Policymaking. Towards More Transparency and Participation
by Monika Sus and Julia Himmrich
About the authors
Monika Sus is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Hertie School of Governance and is responsible for the umbrella project within the Dahrendorf Forum. Julia Himmrich is a Research Fellow at the Euroepan Leadership Network and was previously Research Associate on European Foreign Policy at the Dahrendorf Forum at LSE IDEAS.